Informing the decisions of pastoral woolgrowers for country and profit

Project Name:

Informing the decisions of pastoral woolgrowers for country and profit

Drought and the lead-up to drought are crucial times for making stocking rate decisions in the rangelands. Poor decisions at these times, more so than at any others, can lead to irreversible decline of the soil and pasture base.

However, decision-making at these times is fraught with emotional and psychological considerations that can distract pastoralists. Dr Alec Holm and colleagues worked with pastoralists Rob and Kathryn Mitchell from Yalgoo in Western Australia’s southern rangelands to develop a user-friendly computer program that assists overcome the decision-making distractions.

The program systematically organises a range of information to provide the pastoralist with objective assessments and a constructive alert system. Ideally, the system requires an extension provider and we would welcome enquiries from interested individuals and organisations in this regard.

Aims

Alec emphasises that even when good times returned, the resource base had been changed forever by management decisions made during the drought. This of course has a detrimental affect on long-term sheep performance and wool production.

However, making decisions during drought (especially decisions relating to de-stocking) is psychologically tough. Droughts are stressful times with many worrying issues to pre-occupy a pastoralist’s mind. Drought decisions are not every-day decisions – they only need to be made every 5 or ten years. They involve serious consideration of loss of future income and there is an inclination to put them off in the hope that rain will come eventually. Kathryn Mitchell, a pastoralist on Barnong Station near Yalgoo in Western Australia’s southern rangelands says:

“Making a decision to de-stock can be emotional, and more often than not, you are thinking ‘It will be better next week.’ Objective data can greatly reduce the drama of that decision making process.”

With this in mind, Alec and colleagues worked with Kathryn and her husband Rob to respond to this question:

“Can we develop a user-friendly tool to convey a constructive and objective message about the possible need to de-stock leading up to and during drought that can take the drama out of the decision-making process?”

Outcomes

Alec and colleagues worked with Rob and Kathryn to develop a prototype computer program that aims to collect, collate and systematically analyse information from a range of sources through four key modules. Various information products, which offer potential to enable decisions about stocking rate to be made in a more timely fashion, were evaluated using test data from the Yalgoo pastoral lease and data from a ten year grazing study at Boolathana in the Western Australian arid shrublands (Holm et al., 2005). These products included outputs using NOAA NDVI information (Cridland et al., 1999), modelled biomass predictors (Holm et al., 2003) and a grazing index: DDH/100 mm rainfall (Bartle, 2003).

Rob and Kathryn worked through the modules by adding specific property and climate information to the program. The computer program was prepared using Visual Basic and MS Excel 2000 and can be operated from a home computer equipped with Microsoft Office 2000 or later. Alec calls the system “Critical Decisions on Stocking Rates” (CDSR).

CDSR is designed for woolgrowers in southern Australian pastoral lands. It helps assess the ‘susceptibility of the property to drought’ which dictates the required urgency and extent of necessary decisions when drought looms. An index (graph) of available green feed is updated every two weeks. Current and earlier stocking rates on the property are factored into the green feed index. A comparison of the green feed index with green feed benchmarks reveals current seasonal conditions over the entire property. In the event of a ‘seasonal alert’, alternative stock reduction or management strategies are proposed aligned with the property’s susceptibility to drought.

The four CDSR modules are:

(1) A data entry module in which property details (size, stock numbers and rainfall) are entered. Daily rainfall was downloaded using the Silo data drill from the Queensland Department of Natural Resources & Mines (http://www.nrm.qld.gov.au/silo/datadrill/index.html). Seasonal characteristics were downloaded from Rainman v 4.3 produced by Department of Primary Industries Queensland. Carrying capacity information was derived from published rangeland survey information (Payne et al., 1998).

(2) A risk profile module that makes use of specific property information and considers fixed and variable factors pre-disposing a property to drought (eg: feed availability, salinity of water and feed, age of stock etc). These risk factors are summarised and enable pastoralists to identify themselves on a risk grid where high risk indicates need for prompt, significant de-stocking in face of a poor or failed season and low risk indicates less urgent and/or less significant de-stocking.

(3) A seasonal analysis module which tracks stock numbers on the property over preceding two years in relation to the evolving season in two-weekly or monthly time steps. Two outputs are provided:

a) A worm graph measuring amount of green feed on offer (NDVI data).

b) A worm graph measuring amount of green feed on offer related to current stocking pressure.

NOAA NDVI data was provided by Western Australian Department of Land Information (http://www.dli.wa.gov.au/corporate.nsf/web/Satellite+Image+Archive). The seasonal analysis module also includes options to review trends over several years in a) the two green feed measures and b) monthly rainfall with a comparison of current stocking rate with long term average stocking rate.

(4) An assessment module. Data from seasonal analyses provides a seasonal alert rating and is combined with the risk profile rating of the Susceptibility of the Property to Drought (SPD). Indicative management responses are provided for each combination of SPD rating and seasonal alert status.

Kathryn summarises her experience with the technology as follows:

“It will be extremely useful as you can tailor the package to your own property. The research has great potential and the information is very user friendly. We could see it being utilised by groups such as the Department of Agriculture, which could in turn use the software to issue localised warnings for example”

Having completed the work to a prototype stage, Alec believes the technology is best applied through a facilitated learning approach, perhaps through public or private extension providers. Alec would welcome enquiries in this regard.

Background

Decisions relating to stock numbers leading up to and during drought are crucial to the long-term management of the rangelands. Poor decisions during this period can lead to almost irreparable damage to the pasture base. In the pastoral zone, there is no prospect of 're-sowing' a failed pasture after drought and the generally dry and variable climate means that recovery is, in many instances, uneconomically slow.

The principal researcher in this project, Dr Alec Holm, illustrated this fact with a compelling quote about the 1936-42 drought and its affect on the historic property Landor Station:

"[In 1926] Landor was carrying 50,000 sheep and 5,000 cattle. It was Mr Bush’s ambition that Landor should carry 80,000 sheep. During 1936 only 260 points of rain was recorded at Landor and sheep began to die.

"Every year the rain was more spasmodic and each year stock losses grew…in 1938 only 13,225 sheep were left. The drought dragged on and in 1942 all that remained of the Landor flock was 6,220 sheep.

"… never again did it [Landor] carry such numbers."

McDonald, 1991, p23-24.

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