Research Takes QLD Seasonal Forecasting to New Level

_This project is complete, follow this link to download the report- [Improved Seasonal Forecasts for Wool Producers in the Western Zone (QLD)](http://landwaterwool.gov.au/index.php?q=node/27)_

WESTERN Queensland woolgrowers will soon be able to better manage seasonal fluctuations thanks to a landmark climate forecasting research project being conducted in the region.

The project – Improved Seasonal Forecasts for Wool Producers in the Western Zone - aims to deliver accurate, region-specific seasonal forecasts to growers up to six months ahead, enabling them to make productive and environmentally-sound management decisions based on potential rainfall.

Department of Primary Industries’ Climate Extension Officer based at Longreach, Janelle Park, said the research placed the region’s sheep and woolgrowers in a key position to boost long-term viability and productivity.

“Growers in the Central Western region want three things when it comes to seasonal forecasts – timeliness, accuracy and information accessibility,” Janelle said.

“Ultimately this project will give growers an accurate forecast of summer rainfall, six months in advance so they can instigate management changes in line with the seasonal outlook.”

Longreach sheep and cattle producer James Milson, ‘Somerset’, has welcomed the climate research project, saying relevant, timely and accurate forecasting for rainfall and pasture growth will be an invaluable tool in planning stock management strategies and sales.

James currently monitors weather forecasting systems such as the SOI index and 40-day wave to help predict seasonal outcomes but believes that medium term, region-specific rainfall forecasts which factor in the effect on pastures will be a major step forward for industry.

“If we are told in May or June that it’s probable the summer will be dry, we can make management decisions in areas like weaning, stocking rate, and stock sales accordingly,” he said.

“With forecasting, we’re only working on the odds but if we can get our predictions right 70 per cent of the time, it will make a big difference to profitability. That’s why this research project is so important.

“More often than not, growers make most of their money in two or three years out of 10. If we can capitalise on those years and minimise losses in the intervening years, long-term profitability will jump.”

To be most effective, forecasts need to correspond with annual peaks in pasture growth and should be issued well beforehand when key management decisions are being made, according to Janelle.

“This project is about determining when forecasts need to be made, what they need to be modelled on and the level of information they need to provide to encourage producers to base management decisions on them.”

The project is to be completed over the next four years to show which forecasting system most usefully and accurately predicts seasonal outcomes in western Queensland’s three major wool growing regions: northern, central and southern.

The Land, Water & Wool Managing Climate Variability research project is the first of its kind to be undertaken in Australia and is a joint program between wool industry research body, Australian Wool Innovation Limited, and the nation’s premier broker of natural resource management research and development, Land & Water Australia.

First published November 2003. For more information go to the Managing Climate Variability Sub-program.