Improved forecasts to boost profits in SA pastoral zone

_This project is complete, follow this link to download the report- [Improved Seasonal Forecasts for Wool Producers in the South Australia Pastoral zone](index.php?q=node/296)_.

SOUTH Australia’s pastoral zone is the focus of a new climate risk project aimed at lifting northern woolgrowers’ profits through improved use of seasonal forecasting tools.

The project will help woolgrowers in low rainfall areas to more effectively use climate forecasts when making grazing management decisions for the season ahead.

The project currently involves 40 woolgrowers stretching from north of Port Augusta to east of Burra. The average annual rainfall in this region is less than 350 millimetres and rainfall distribution is highly variable.

One of the woolgrowers involved in the project is David Lindner, whose family owns the 520-square kilometre property, Wonga Station, near Morgan. The property’s average annual rainfall is 230 mm.

The Lindner family runs a self-replacing Merino flock of 16,000 sheep, with stocking rates peaking from July - August onwards during lambing. They aim to rely less on early season rainfall and more on spring rain.

Before becoming involved in the project, David had used little seasonal forecasting information but relied on his own historical rainfall records and ‘gut feel’ to make management decisions.

“In our area, the rainfall amount and timing is very variable which makes it difficult for accurate predictions,” he said. “Generally March and April are the lowest rainfall months while October is our highest rainfall month, but this can vary.”

David is interested in adopting a controlled grazing system on his property and believes improved rainfall predictions would assist with the management of grazing and pasture rest periods.

“I believe the project results will give me a greater understanding of climate risk so that in the future I have the confidence to use forecasting tools, along with my own assessments of land and pasture condition,” he said.

Project leader, Melissa Rebbeck, from the South Australian Research and Development Institute said “By using a range of climate risk tools and services growers can now identify the likely good seasons in advance to maximise their profits while better managing their risk and reducing their losses in below average seasons.”

According to Melissa, the information will allow producers to make better-informed management decisions. In a likely good season this could include joining all breeding animals, purchasing stock or keeping sheep off certain paddocks to rejuvenate pasture.

David Lindner believes, as the forecasting tools become more tailored to rangeland conditions, there could be a range of economic and ecological benefits.

“If we could get more accurate rainfall predictions, which is vital for perennial pasture germination and re-vegetation, this information would allow us to adjust our stocking rates to improve pasture growth, depending on the seasonal outlook and conditions,” David said.

“Joining is also one of the most important decisions on a pastoral property as it influences stock numbers available to sell, wool cut and has a carryover effect for the following four years. More accurate short-term seasonal forecasts would benefit our lambing, joining and selling decisions.”

Land, Water & Wool Managing Climate Variability Sub-program will run until 2005. As the project progresses, new and emerging climate forecasting tools will be included and the practical benefits of the information - and how woolgrowers are using it - will be evaluated.

First published November 2003. For more information go to the Managing Climate Variability Sub-program.